Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 18.701405 21.748159 25.080333 28.987932 33.437161 38.337584 44.135742
2024-10-27 12.827444 16.755962 21.506936 27.641269 35.313882 44.552283 56.472761
2024-11-03 10.650500 15.219784 21.186936 29.468970 40.570798 54.829960 74.402555
2024-11-10 9.391998 14.453898 21.492931 31.849003 46.517211 66.336701 94.879039
2024-11-17 7.865984 12.957364 20.454002 32.077063 49.366260 73.792373 110.470893
2024-11-24 6.538059 11.475076 19.139433 31.606970 50.993857 79.501601 123.932041
2024-12-01 5.403491 10.074605 17.698409 30.670451 51.689576 83.755700 135.458375
2024-12-08 4.662123 9.188340 16.920685 30.623090 53.659530 89.970879 150.299659
2024-12-15 4.098697 8.511126 16.377886 30.853984 56.030878 96.918864 166.725249
2024-12-22 3.336539 7.329174 14.779971 29.049695 54.769200 97.861489 173.539479
2024-12-29 3.060313 7.041180 14.752951 30.009980 58.311833 106.930608 194.258574
2025-01-05 2.905797 6.973276 15.123677 31.725723 63.323869 118.822730 220.512040
2025-01-12 2.487472 6.300793 14.278394 31.139742 64.284994 124.138436 236.556134
2025-01-19 2.041346 5.484834 13.033108 29.632921 63.407780 126.216813 247.304246
2025-01-26 1.944700 5.464559 13.457000 31.563952 69.361601 141.195475 282.366250
2025-02-02 1.897057 5.554522 14.131015 34.092482 76.736201 159.376915 324.599484
2025-02-09 1.694148 5.208722 13.769276 34.334356 79.468682 168.939564 351.405109
2025-02-16 1.473526 4.767923 13.115359 33.834347 80.581843 175.416368 372.760877
2025-02-23 1.258013 4.291575 12.296390 32.838323 80.504319 179.480890 389.657305
2025-03-02 1.118540 4.003974 11.902551 32.787945 82.479496 187.819059 415.549750
2025-03-09 1.009139 3.782858 11.645595 33.033520 85.133241 197.737918 445.275844
2025-03-16 0.829134 3.291957 10.581884 31.114193 82.589382 196.494678 452.007726
2025-03-23 0.777475 3.215796 10.657335 32.135790 87.076350 210.656994 491.786407